Big Data. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Survey data. Employment Big Data. Those are all things that calculating worklife expectancy for U.S. workers requires. Worklife expectancy is similar to life expectancy and indicates how long a person can be expected to be active in the workforce over their working life. The worklife expectancy figure takes into account the anticipated to time out of the market due to unemployment, voluntary leaves, attrition, etc
Overall the goal of our recent work is to update the Millimet et al (2002) worklife expectancy paper and account for more recent CPS data. Their paper uses data from the 1992 to 2000 time period. Our goal is to update that paper using data from 2000 to 2013. The main goal of the paper is to see if estimating the Millimet et al (2002) econometric worklife models with more recent data changes the results in the 2002 paper in any substantive way
As for the results, overall there are several findings. First we were able to create a match CPS data set of 201,797 individuals where as the Millimet et al. (2002) found 200,916 matched individuals.
Overall we match their results very closely as well. For example Millimet et al. (2002) found that a male who was 26 years old with a less than a high school education had a 27.27 years WLE remaining while we found that person had 26.319 years remaining based on our replication of their work. They found that the same age person with a high school had 32.89 years remaining while we found 32.728 years remaining. The replication was particularly good for both less than high school and high school levels of educational attainment.
The WLE numbers are close but not quite as close for college and some college. This is primarily due to the fact that we use different definitions of some college and college then Millimet et al. (2002) did in their 2002 paper
|Table 3. Comparsion of Millimet et al. (2002) and Steward and Gaylor (2015) Active to Active Worklife Expectancy Probabilities|
|Millimet et al (2002)||Steward and Gaylor (2015) Replication|
|Age||Less than High School||High School||Less than High School||High School|
The econometric model described by Millimet et al (2002) and logistic regression equations by gender and education are used to calculate the worklife expectancy estimates. The model is estimated using matched CPS cohorts from 1992–2000 time period as described in the Millimet et al. (2002) paper. The logistic equation includes independent variable for age, age squared, race, race by age interaction, race by age interaction squared, marital status, martial status by age, occupation dummies, year and year dummies. The model is first estimated separately for each gender and education level combination for active persons. The model is then estimated again for inactive persons.